Nigeria’s incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan has been tipped as the winner of next weekend’s election, parrying over the floating impression that his challenger, former dictator and a bride in an opposition alliance, General Muhammadu Buhari would win.
For several years, stiff opposition championed by some powerful online news media with links in all continents of the World has pushed the president into a edge with assault of severe attacks unseen in the annals of Nigerian political history.
The same online forum has succeeded in presenting the the former military leader as the sure winner of the election, motivating youths and many opposition partners into mind boggling attack and sensational blackmail, which has portrayed the incumbent ruler as the worse leader Nigeria ever had, with no record of achievement being adduced to him in his over four years of leadership. He has also been modelled as in government only for the purpose of tolerating corruption and not driving the nation in the right direction.
But according to Kevin, Charlyn & Kimberly Associates, a UK based research and political risk consultancy firm,President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party is heading towards victory over the 73 year old general and will the 2015 Presidential Election with a margin of 13 per cent in probability.
The group which used both ‘monkey survey’ and ‘Political Risk Index’ to forecast the Nigerian election projected that if the POP result remains as the election approaches next week, Jonathan’s win would be assured.
In a statement by Mr. O.C Vince, the Vice President of the firm for West Africa while addressing a press conference during the week in Abuja, the firm sworn that it had no partisan interest in the outcome of the election which he claimed would only be decided by the people of Nigeria. According to him, he is just saying it as the result of the sampled opinion reflected.
The company said it decided to conduct the survey because of the general global interest the Nigeria election has generated. ‘Many people around the world, including political leaders and investors are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed’. Mr. Vince said the ruling Peoples Democratic Party appear to be facing its toughest challenge in 16 years and hoped the efforts they have made will help deepen and strengthen democracy in Nigeria and enable the different contending parties manage their final push toward 2015.
However, there was indication whether support for the re-election was because of PDP’s new image which had changed from its former texture controlled by old political actors or whether, the drive by Jonathan to establish a just society with new vision had caught the attention and sympathy of voters.
The full statement:
We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North East, North West, North Central, South West, South East and South- South. The sampled population were asked three questions centering on human rights, the economy and security: